The way Canada’s Express Entry application management system selects which candidates receive Invitations to Apply (ITAs) has changed significantly since the summer of 2023.
While Express Entry has been unexpected recently, some patterns have begun to develop in the last few weeks that may set the tone for the rest of the year.
So far this year, the most noticeable change has been the introduction of category-based selection invites for candidates with specified characteristics.
There are six distinct categories for Express Entry candidates that match particular criteria. One category is for candidates with strong French language skills, while the remaining five are for candidates with occupation-specific work experience in the following:
- Healthcare
- Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) professions
- Trades, such as carpenters, plumbers, and contractors
- Transport
- Agriculture and agri-food
The new categories, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), will assist Canada expand the number of newcomers with job experience in high-demand sectors of the Canadian economy. They will also assist the immigration minister in fulfilling his responsibility to promote Francophone immigration to French-speaking minority areas outside of Quebec.
A variety of draw types
According to a recent Globe and Mail story, IRCC expects between 28% and 31% of Express Entry ITAs to be awarded to individuals with recent work experience in specified STEM occupations.
According to the same report, the department will issue between 11 and 15% of all Express Entry ITAs to candidates with French language proficiency, 9-12% to those with experience in healthcare occupations, 3-4% to those in trades, and only 1% to those with experience in agriculture, agrifood, and transportation.
As part of a new tech talent strategy, IRCC has launched many efforts to attract people in STEM fields. 500 STEM candidates have received ITAs in category-based Express Entry draws so far in 2023.
As many H-1B holders work in tech occupations, Canada recently introduced open work permits for candidates in the United States who currently have an H-1B speciality visa. The program’s quota of 10,000 applications for 2023 was met within two days of its July 16 introduction. Those who come to Canada on an open work permit and get work experience in the computer sector may have an edge when applying to the Express Entry pool later.
However, not all future rounds of invitations will be based on categories. Since the introduction of category-based draws, IRCC has invited 3,500 candidates in three distinct all-program drawings. Candidates in the three Express Entry-managed immigration programs, the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), and the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP), are considered in all-program draws. In these drawings, a candidate’s overall CRS score, rather than work experience or French language skills, is the decisive criteria.
There may also be program-specific draws left. IRCC, for example, may continue to welcome Express Entry candidates who have already been nominated through the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP).
Comprehensive Ranking System scores will vary depending on the program or category.
The Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) is used to compare Express Entry candidates based on certain human capital qualities such as job experience, occupation, age, education, and language competence.
So far this year, the minimal CRS score has fluctuated from 791 in a PNP-only draw on February 15 to 375 when 3,800 French-speaking candidates obtained ITAs on July 12.
Since the introduction of category-based invitation rounds, there has been a significant difference in CRS scores for all-program draws versus category-based selection. So far, the highest score for category-based ITAs is 486. Since the initial category-based selection draw on June 28, this is still 19 points below than the lowest all-program draw score of 505.
Regardless of the program or category, candidates should aim for the best possible CRS score. Even in category-based selection draws, the IRCC says it will still rate candidates and invite the top scorers. A high CRS score can also increase eligibility for more than one type of draw, and a candidate who would be eligible in a category draw may instead be invited to an all-program draw, depending on which draw type occurs first.
Levels of immigration in late 2023
Under the Immigration Levels Plan 2023-2025, IRCC has set lofty goals for permanent resident admissions. The plan anticipates that 109,020 new permanent residents will be admitted to Canada through Express Entry in 2024, with the number increasing to 114,000 in 2025.
The target for 2023 is 82,880, and IRCC is well on its way to meeting it, having already invited 73,448 Express Entry candidates this year. Nonetheless, additional Express Entry candidates may acquire ITAs in the later half of 2023 to help fulfill the higher 2024 targets. This is because those who acquire ITAs now will most likely not be allowed to Canada until 2024 due to the IRCC service standard of six months to process and finalize Express Entry applications.
Looking forward
If current trends continue, the rest of 2023 appears to be a balanced mix of draw types. Some will be all-program or program-specific drawings, with higher minimum CRS scores and fewer ITAs distributed. Others will be drawn from categories with lower CRS ratings. Even with a lower minimum CRS, the amount of category-based invitations sent can vary.
