How Does IRCC Decide When To Hold Express Entry Draws?
Express Entry draws were fairly predictable prior to the coronavirus pandemic.
Despite the fact that it was not an official policy, Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) held draws every two weeks, on Wednesday. Each draw would typically include over 3,000 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) for permanent residence, with CRS cut-offs of around 470 points.
Things were more stable back then, as Express Entry’s policy objectives had largely remained unchanged since the system’s inception in January 2015. Furthermore, IRCC was close to meeting its goal of processing 80% of Express Entry permanent residence applications in six months or less, and thus could continue issuing new ITAs at regular intervals, giving Express Entry candidates more certainty.
However, since the outbreak of the pandemic, Express Entry draws have been far less predictable. There is no longer a consistent pattern for when a draw will take place, the type of draw, the number of ITAs, or the CRS cut-offs.
This year, for example, Express Entry draws were held on a regular basis, roughly every two weeks, leading up to June. Draws became more frequent after IRCC implemented category-based selection, as IRCC sought to achieve a broader range of policy goals, including addressing labour shortages and welcoming more Francophone immigrants.
IRCC held a total of 12 Express Entry draws between June 27 and August 15, a period during which category-based selection was implemented. This was unprecedented, as previous trends indicated that IRCC would typically hold 4-8 draws over a comparable time period. The IRCC then paused issuing Express Entry invitations for just over a month before holding nine additional draws between September 19 and October 26.
There hasn’t been a draw since October 26, and IRCC hasn’t given any explanation for why. However, there are a few key factors that could influence when the IRCC holds Express Entry draws.
Plan for Immigration Levels
Each year, the IRCC publishes an Immigration Levels Plan, which establishes the annual targets for the number of permanent resident admissions to Canada for the next three years.
These targets are further subdivided by category, which includes Express Entry candidates.
For example, IRCC anticipates landing 110,770 immigrants through Express Entry in 2024, and 117,550 in both 2025 and 2026. These figures include both the primary applicants who receive Express Entry ITAs and their eligible partners and dependents who can be added to their permanent residence applications.
To ensure that IRCC meets these targets, the number of permanent residence applications in the processing queue must be constantly evaluated. If IRCC receives enough applications to meet its targets for the current and upcoming fiscal years, the department may not need to issue any additional ITAs. If there aren’t enough applications in the queue, IRCC will most likely hold more draws or issue more ITAs.
Because it takes six months to process an Express Entry candidate’s final application, IRCC considers both the current year and the upcoming year when deciding on the number of ITAs to issue in terms of targets. This means that ITAs issued in the latter half of 2023 will most likely result in a permanent resident landing in 2024.
Policy objectives of the IRCC
In order to meet its policy objectives, the department must also consider the types of draws that should be held.
Canada’s immigration minister is charged with bolstering the country’s economy. The minister accomplishes this by issuing directives to invite newcomers with the skills to fill labor-force gaps and contribute to the economy as soon as they arrive in Canada.
Another important method is to send Express Entry invitations to Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates.
Deciding on which candidates to invite takes time and consideration, and can result in brief pauses in Express Entry draws while IRCC weighs its options. For example, the minister must decide whether candidates should be invited in an all-program draw that includes candidates from all three Express Entry managed programs, or if it is more appropriate to hold program-specific draws or invite candidates in a category-based round of invitations.
Modifications to the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) and Express Entry profiles
Changes to the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) and other Express Entry profile changes may have an impact on Express Entry draws on occasion.
While it is rare, a change in how IRCC assigns CRS points to a specific attribute can also affect the frequency of Express Entry draws.
IRCC, for example, increased the number of CRS points a candidate could receive for French proficiency in 2020. When this occurs, IRCC must perform several technical updates to ensure that all existing profiles have accurate CRS scores.
As another example, IRCC had to phase out NOC Skill Types in favour of the new TEER system last year.
IT problems
Another factor that can affect Express Entry is IT issues, including glitches.
Recently, IRCC reported a problem with the Express Entry profile builder. Candidates who have already received an ITA may be unable to submit their final application for permanent residency within the required 60 days due to the glitch.
IRCC tweeted on November 29 that applicants who were unable to upload their profiles due to the glitch will have an additional 60 days to submit their application.
New system rollouts may cause IRCC issues. For example, at a recent meeting of the Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration, IRCC Deputy Minister Christiane Fox mentioned that there had been some IT issues following the implementation of category-based invitation selection rounds.
When such glitches occur, the IRCC may decide to postpone draws until the problem is resolved.
Furthermore, there were no Express Entry draws between November 23, 2022, and January 11, 2023, due to an IT issue with the National Occupation Classification (NOC) system updates. As a result of the error, some ineligible candidates received ITAs.
IRCC staffing changes
A change in personnel can also have an impact on Express Entry draws. This could include a new Immigration Minister, Deputy Minister, or other officials in charge of Express Entry. It takes time for employees to adjust to their new roles.
The IRCC is being reorganized following the release of a report by former Deputy Minister Neil Yeates that highlighted departmental inefficiencies. He recommended restructuring IRCC’s organization based on lines of business in the report. Deputy Minister Fox told Paul Wells that the department has already made changes to reflect some of the recommendations. This would inevitably have an impact on department staffing.
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