According to a new Statistics Canada report, the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) has significantly transformed Canada’s immigration landscape.
Except for Quebec and the Yukon, the PNP was implemented in all provinces between 1998 and 2009. The aim was to extend economic immigration outside of major Canadian cities and to meet the labour force demands of each province and territory.
Each province and territory is responsible for designing and managing its own PNP. Applicants can apply to one of several different streams. While the streams vary significantly between provinces and territories, there are a few primary types: employees with job offers, workers without job offers, entrepreneur streams, and international student streams.
The PNP has been steadily growing, with 68,000 provincial nominees in Canada in 2019. The PNP was the largest economic immigration selection program that year, accounting for 35% of all new immigrants in Canada, up from 1% in 2000.
Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) publishes a new Immigrations Level Plan each year to govern its operations. Canada plans to welcome 465,000 new permanent residents in 2023, with the number increasing to 500,000 in 2025. The Immigration Levels Plan objective for permanent residents via PNP exceeds the federal government’s main economic class pathway, Express Entry. Through the PNP, IRCC hopes to welcome 117,500 permanent residents by 2025.
The geographic distribution of economic immigrants in Canada
The key finding of the Statistics Canada study was that economic immigration decentralized concurrently with PNP growth – as PNPs grew, economic immigration became less centralized in Canada. From 2000 to 2019, the provincial distribution of new economic immigrants changed dramatically.
In example, the proportion of immigrants planning to settle in Ontario (primarily Toronto) fell from 61% to 42% over that time period. The proportion of visitors to British Columbia fell slightly, from 17% to 15%.
The Prairie provinces benefited significantly, with the ratio of immigrants travelling to Manitoba and Saskatchewan increasing from about nil to around 7%. Alberta and the Atlantic provinces also saw a gain in share, with their combined share growing from 1% to 7%.
Provincial nominees’ changing characteristics
The characteristics of those chosen through the PNP have changed dramatically as the program has grown.
The most significant change was the increased preference for economic immigrants with prior Canadian earnings, effectively implying temporary foreign labour. Provincial candidates aged 20 to 54 who were formerly temporary foreign employees increased from 6% in 2002 to 61% in 2019 and 72% in 2021.
According to research, immigrants who were previously temporary foreign workers fared better in the labour market, both in the short and long run, than immigrants who had no prior Canadian work experience.
There was also a significant increase in the number of PNP immigrants who had prior Canadian study experience. Pre-immigration Canadian study experience was obtained by 38% of new PNP immigrants in 2019, up from 7% in 2010.
Another key factor was age. In the past, the average age of provincial nominees at the time of immigration has been decreasing. The proportion of immigrants aged 20 to 29 increased from 24% in 2005 to 38% in 2019. According to the study, younger immigrants outperform their older counterparts in terms of economic success, particularly in the long run.
As the proportion of candidates in their 20s increased so did the proportion of major applicants without spouses or dependents.
The official language ability of provincial nominees has changed dramatically. In 2005, one-fifth of the nominees did not speak English or French. In 2019, the number of nominees who did not speak English or French upon arriving in Canada has nearly halved, owing to the fact that most PNP programs now require nominees to speak English or French at some level.
From 2005 to 2019, the proportion of people who speak English or French as a second language climbed from 64% to 91%.
Finally, there has been a shift in the origin countries of economic migrants. Economic immigrants have traditionally come to Canada from a diverse range of source countries, with no single country or area dominating, although this is changing. 70% of new provincial nominees in 2019 came from three Asian regions: Southern Asia, Eastern Asia, and Southeast Asia.
Looking ahead
Since the inception of the PNP, there has been a significant decentralization of new economic immigrants. The qualities of new provincial nominees have also altered dramatically, usually in ways that promote economic outcomes.
Continued PNP expansion has the potential to feed the trend of greater regional decentralization of immigration, which is meant to better adapt to demographic and labour market concerns faced by different areas of Canada.
According to the study, the number, settlement patterns, and characteristics of provincial candidates fluctuate throughout time, influencing their labour and demographic responsibilities.
